Argus Leader: Voters split evenly on S.D. abortion ban

PIERRE - On the most divisive issue on our 2008 ballot, South Dakota is evenly divided.

An Argus Leader Media/KELO-TV poll showed a dead heat on Initiated Measure 11, the state’s proposed abortion ban: 44 percent said they’d vote for it and 44 percent said they’d vote against it if the election were held immediately. The poll was conducted Oct. 13-15, with a sample of 800 South Dakotans who said they are likely voters. The poll’s margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

The 12 percent who said they still are undecided will determine the outcome of the issue Nov. 4.

"That’s a very significant number of undecided at this late date in a campaign on this issue," said Don Dahlin, longtime University of South Dakota political scientist.

"My guess is that a majority of those undecided, maybe a vast majority, are people who are basically opposed to abortion but troubled by the exceptions and what they mean," he said.

To Dahlin, the closeness of the race illustrates that the inclusion of limited exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the pregnant woman has helped win more support than the all-but-absolute ban rejected two years ago.

Whether the exceptions written into this year’s initiative are workable has been one of the major disagreements between supporters and opponents of the ban.

When those people make their ballot decision, they probably will have to do it on the basis of which side or which presenter they trust, Dahlin said.

Jan Nicolay of the Campaign for Healthy Families, which opposes Initiated Measure 11, said she’s pleased with the poll results.

"We believe we will continue to gain ground as more South Dakotans learn about the medical community’s opposition to this abortion ban because of the dangerous government intrusion into the private medical decisions that affect how doctors treat women," Nicolay said.

That issue will be the focus of the campaign’s final days, she said. "We are taking nothing for granted," Nicolay said.

Brandi Gruis of VoteYesForLife.com, which supports the ban, said she thinks the poll shows that her side has the momentum "going into the final push of this campaign."

Gruis said voters understand that passing the initiative will stop 97 percent of abortions in South Dakota.

Internal polls show a consistent lead for those favoring the ban, she said. She called the poll results positive and said they are "testimony to the thousands of volunteers." The results show that voters in the state "know that Measure 11 is a reasonable approach to abortion in South Dakota," she added.

The poll showed men (45-42 in favor) and women (46-43 against) almost as closely divided as the overall results. Only 25 percent of registered Democrats said they’d support the ban, while 62 percent of registered Republicans and 38 percent of independents said they’d support it. Independents had the highest percentage of undecided voters, 19 percent.

Long division

That South Dakota is divided on abortion comes as no surprise, given recent history.

Two years ago the Legislature passed a bill to make it a felony to perform an abortion. Gov. Mike Rounds signed the measure into law. Before it could take effect, opponents circulated petitions and referred it to a public vote. It lost by a 56-44 margin.

A poll released a week before the 2006 election showed 52 percent of respondents were opposed to that ban and 42 percent were in favor of it. That poll suggested there would be broader support for criminalizing most abortions if rape and incest exceptions were included.

Effect of exceptions

Abortion foes wrote those exceptions into this year’s measure, although opponents of the ban have argued that those provisions would amount to government dictating to doctors how to practice medicine.

Those who said they’d support the ban this year were asked a follow-up question: Was the inclusion of exceptions in the bill a factor in your vote or not?

More than half, 56 percent, said that wasn’t a factor, but 37 percent said the exceptions were a factor in their vote or planned vote.

Mason-Dixon Research and Polling of Washington, D.C., performed the poll in 2006 and again this year.

Harley Hansen of Redfield said he voted for the referred law in 2006 and will vote for the ban this year.

"I’m pro-life, and I do support those things that will limit abortion," Hansen said. "I liked the additions that they wrote into this year’s bill. I think that helped some people with supporting it."

Toni Milner of Hermosa said she would vote against the ban.

"I just believe women have rights in these matters," Milner said. "I also don’t like the idea of government interfering and the section where doctors would have to release your records to government. I’m not fond of big government."

Connie Turley of Rapid City said her decision wasn’t easy, but she will vote to pass the ban.

"I thought a long time about it, and I do have some mixed feelings, but I’m against abortion," Turley said. "I feel like there are other choices or options people can make before they get to the point" of an unwanted pregnancy.

Click here to view the story at ArgusLeader.com.