Rapid City Journal: Voters split evenly on SD Abortion Ban

If the results of an independent public opinion poll bear out, the 12 percent of respondents who say they are undecided on South Dakota’s latest abortion ban will decide its fate.

The random telephone poll of 800 registered voters indicated 44 percent of respondents said they would vote for Initiated Measure 11 and 44 percent would vote against it. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It was conducted Oct. 13-15 for Argus Leader Media and KELO-TV of Sioux Falls by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C.

The 12 percent undecided is "a very significant number of undecided at this late date in a campaign on this issue," said Don Dahlin, University of South Dakota political science professor.

"My guess is that a majority of those undecided, maybe a vast majority, are people who are basically opposed to abortion but troubled by the exceptions and what they mean," he said.

By a vote of 56 percent to 44 percent, South Dakota voters defeated an abortion ban in 2006 that did not have the exceptions that have been written into the 2008 version. Initiated Measure 11 includes limited exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the pregnant woman, and the exceptions have helped the ban win more support than the 2006 ballot issue.

An independent poll released a week before the 2006 election showed 52 percent opposed to that ban and 42 percent for it. That poll also suggested there would be broader support if rape and incest exceptions were included.

One of the biggest disagreements between the opposing camps this year is whether the exceptions would work. Dahlin said that when the undecided voters finally decide, they probably will do it based on which side or presenter they trust.

Opponents say the exceptions would amount to government dictating to doctors how to practice medicine and that physicians could be criminally charged for exceeding the measure’s bounds.

Supporters said the poll shows that their side has the momentum entering the home stretch.

The poll on Measure 11 indicates men favor it 45 percent to 42 percent and women oppose it 46 percent to 43 percent. One-fourth of registered Democrats said they’d support the ban, while 62 percent of registered Republicans and 38 percent of independents said they’d support it. Nineteen percent of independents were undecided, the poll indicated.

Pollsters asked respondents who indicated support for the abortion ban whether including the exceptions was a factor in their decision. Fifty-six percent said it wasn’t a factor, while 37 percent said the exceptions played a role.

A Redfield man, Harley Hansen, said he voted for the ban in 2006 and do so again.

"I’m pro-life, and I do support those things that will limit abortion," Hansen said. "I liked the additions that they wrote into this year’s bill. I think that helped some people with supporting it."

Toni Milner of Hermosa planned to vote no.

"I just believe women have rights in these matters," Milner said. "I also don’t like the idea of government interfering and the section where doctors would have to release your records to government. I’m not fond of big government."

Click here to view the story at RapidCityJournal.com.